Why Italian Logistics Must Rethink People, Processes and Territories
Italy enters the 2020s with a dual demographic front that affects logistics directly: fewer births and an ageing workforce. According to the latest ISTAT data on births and fertility, in 2024 there were 369,944 births (-2.6 % compared with 2023) and the total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.18, a new historic low. The year 2025 does not reverse the trend: between January and July births reached 197,956, down 6.3 % compared with the same period in 2024, with an estimated TFR of 1.13. Parents are having children at increasingly later ages (the average age at first birth is 31.9 years), and over one-fifth of newborns have at least one foreign-born parent (21.8 %)—a structural feature of our demographic profile.
On the labour-supply side, ISTAT forecasts that the share of the population aged 15–64 will fall from 63.5 % in 2024 to 54.3 % by 2050. In absolute terms, the 15-to-64 cohort will drop from 37.2 million to fewer than 30 million. The activity rate is expected to rise (from 66.6 % to 73.2 %), especially among women, yet this will not suffice to offset the shrinkage of the potential workforce. Participation among older age groups will increase as well: the activity rate for those aged 65–74 is projected to rise from 11 % to 16 % by 2050. Marked territorial disparities will persist, with the South of Italy consistently trailing the North-Centre.
For logistics professionals these dynamics translate into four operational challenges:
a. Recruiting staff and generational renewal
With fewer young people available and heightened competition across sectors, entry-level roles in warehouses, line-haul and last-mile will become harder to fill—especially in regions with the sharpest decline in births. The 2025 data show the birth decline from January to July is more pronounced in the Centre and South, while Lazio’s estimated TFR drops to 1.01 (among the very low) and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano remains a singular case at 1.55—useful signals for planning recruitment geography and locating hubs and micro-hubs.
b. Ageing workforce: redesigning roles and environments
With more workers in the 55–64 bracket (and a non-negligible share in 65–74 still active), ergonomic design of workstations (lifting aids, cobots, reduced walking, goods-to-person solutions), injury prevention and career pathways into supervision, quality assurance and training become key productivity levers. Age-friendly logistics is not a cost; it is insurance for operational continuity.
c. More female employment and thus greater potential supply (if the model allows it)
Women’s activity rate is set to rise, but it will remain below that of men. Flexible shifts, qualified part-time, adequate changing-rooms and services, proximate micro-hubs and fast-track certification in WMS/TMS and safety are concrete levers to widen access and retain talent.
d. Service demand in an older society
with an older population comes a shift in what moves (more health/wellness products, para-pharmacy, medical devices, fresh food in smaller portions), how it moves (more daytime deliveries with narrow time-windows, assisted delivery, easy-open packaging), and where it moves (greater proximity and capillarity). There is rising demand for fine cold-chain logistics and programmed reverse logistics (collection/maintenance of aids). In B2B, care homes, outpatient clinics and territorial pharmacies become logistics nodes to integrate into the network.
So what strategic responses can companies deploy now—not just to mitigate the negative effects of these trends, but even to turn them into long-term competitive advantages?
1) Automation and data: the demographic ROI of technology
In recent years logistics has made major strides in deploying mobile robots (AMRs and AGVs), automatic shuttles, collaborative arms and assisted-picking systems. Until now these investments were driven chiefly by efficiency and productivity needs. But as the ISTAT numbers show, from now on automation will also serve as a structural response to declining birthrates.
With a workforce set to shrink by more than 7 million people by 2050, the capacity to “produce more with less” is no longer an ambitious goal but an industrial survival condition. Every euro invested in robotics and digitalisation will generate demographic ROI as well as economic: it means internalising the risk of labour shortages in the business model.
Light automation technologies can stabilise output even with smaller teams or older operators, reducing physical strain, improving safety and ensuring operational continuity. The logistics of the future will not be “without people”, but with people enabled by technology: the real leap is not about replacing, but about enabling.
The other pillar is data management. Predictive analytics, digital twin models and performance-management platforms allow monitoring each stage of the chain, anticipating inefficiencies and dynamically reallocating resources. In a context of fewer human resources, data becomes the new form of energy: invisible yet decisive in keeping the system in balance.
2) Work organisation: skills, flexibility and continuity
In a country that is ageing and where young people enter the labour market later, organisation becomes the real field of innovation. Logistics, a labour-intensive sector, must evolve toward more flexible, more educational and more inclusive models. There is a need for a new culture of continuous training: internal or territorial academies formed through collaboration among companies, vocational institutes and ITS centres, able to continuously update skills in safety, Industry 4.0 maintenance, data management and new warehouse technologies.
Alongside traditional educational paths, micro-credentials—short, targeted certifications that measure digital and operational skills acquired over time—must be leveraged and can become tangible tools for career progression. The logistics of the coming decade will feature a mix of experienced workers and newly hired digital-native entrants: we must enable dialogue between generations, valuing the experience of those who know the processes and the agile learning of those arriving with new technological competencies.
Finally, work organisation must be redesigned from an ergonomic and life-balance perspective: more balanced shifts, coordination roles for those over 55, physical-support tools (exoskeletons, lifters, cobots) and increased emphasis on safety. This is age-friendly logistics that approaches the future not with nostalgia but with method.
3) Social integration: diversity as a resilience driver
Demographics show us that the foreign component of the resident population is the only one with relatively stable birthrates. In 2024 more than one-fifth of births—21.8%—had at least one foreign-born parent: a figure that is no longer a statistical curiosity but a structural element of Italian society. For logistics this means something simple but critical: integrating foreign workers is a strategic lever, not merely a theme of social responsibility. In many areas of the country, especially in those with a TFR below 1.1 (Centre and parts of the North-West), foreign workers provide the essential backbone of shift coverage and continuity of service.
But the real leap comes when diversity becomes organisation, not mere presence: structured onboarding policies, language and technical training, internal progression paths and systems recognizing competencies already acquired. In a context of labour scarcity, the ability to turn diversity into stability is what distinguishes resilient companies from fragile ones.
Logistics can become a laboratory of advanced integration: a place where technological innovation and social inclusion support each other, generating economic value and cohesion.
4) Network decisions: a logistics geography aligned with demographics
Population ageing will change not only who works in logistics but also where and how goods move. Regions experiencing strong demographic decline (Lazio, Tuscany, Umbria and much of the South) will over time see a reduction in volumes tied to traditional consumer goods and an increase in those related to personal services, healthcare and proximity.
This calls for a redesign of the logistics network. The model of large peripheral warehouses and broad-scale deliveries must give way to more capillary, intelligent networks: urban micro-fulfillment centres, automated lockers, pick-up/drop-off points (PUDO) integrated within neighbourhood fabrics. These solutions address both evolving demand (older population, more scheduled and daytime deliveries) and the need to reduce travel distances and environmental costs. In the medium term, it will be useful to anchor presence in areas with stronger demographic resilience—such as the Autonomous Provinces of Bolzano and Trento—to experiment with new models: distribution via electric or hydrogen vehicles, drones, collaborative logistics platforms.
These territories are ideal for piloting innovations that can later scale nationally. In other words, the map of Italian logistics must become an adaptive map, capable of reading not only freight flows but also population movements and social needs.
FIT Consulting: interpreting data to build strategy
Automation, organisation, integration and network are not four separate chapters: they are the pillars of a single demographic strategy for logistics. Those who can interpret the data, invest in people and redesign the network with foresight can not only endure change but lead it. And in a country that is changing so rapidly, the ability to read ISTAT numbers and turn them into action is what will truly make the difference between those who suffer the future and those who build it.
At FIT Consulting we have observed for years that logistics is a thermometer of the nation, and demographics its underlying beat. Understanding where and how population changes occur means anticipating mobility, consumption and employment trends. It is on these foundations that we design predictive models and scenarios for companies, local authorities and operators, integrating demographic statistics, traffic data and supply-chain analysis. Because only through accurate number-reading is it possible to devise coherent training, automation and inclusion policies aligned with the future of work and mobility.
Declining demographics is not news: it is a structural trend. And those in logistics today carry an added responsibility: turning the ISTAT numbers into concrete strategy, investment decisions and new organisational models. Because the logistics of tomorrow will be not only more technological but also smarter, more inclusive and conscious of its role in a changing society.
Massimo Marciani
