Despite an overall 6.8% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to 2022, the transport sector in Italy remains a significant concern. According to official data released by ISPRA, emissions from transport, responsible for 28% of the national total, increased in 2023, playing a key role in the country exceeding the annual limits set by the European Union.

Transport is among the sectors covered by the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation, which requires Italy to reduce emissions by 43.7% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. In addition to transport, the regulation also includes emissions from residential heating, agriculture, waste, and non-ETS (Emissions Trading System) industries. However, it is the transport sector that has most hindered the overall emission reductions. ISPRA confirms that Italy has exceeded its annual emission allowances for three consecutive years – by 5.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2021, 5.4 million in 2022, and a notable 8.2 million in 2023.

For the 2021–2030 period, Italy is off track in meeting its targets. Estimates suggest a cumulative excess of around 100 million tonnes of CO2, potentially translating into economic costs ranging from €15 to €25 billion.

Italy will need to act between the end of this year and early next year to develop a compliance plan. If the European Commission finds that insufficient progress has been made, the country will be required to submit a corrective action plan within three months of the next EU progress report, expected in October 2025.